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Navigating a Sea Change in the Midst of Storms

Cloud Darkening

World facing uncertain post-pandemic times


Welcome to a series where we present key strategic thinkers’ findings. We begin with a macro view from McKinsey’s ongoing survey ( as of mid-October 2020) of how executives’ expectations have emerged and changed over time.

Think back to the initial disbelief and denial of the pandemic, followed by the shock of a second wave’s extent and complexity. The false optimism sobered into a grim resolve to face up to a further realization of the Covid19 as an ongoing reality of life- even as we sort out improvisations from adaptations, or actual phase shifts.

Economic Recovery and Containment of the Pandemic:

Our western cultures’ greater individual freedoms and free-market processes have fostered vibrant and entrepreneurial initiatives.  The race to a vaccine has now accentuated the contrast in approaches to government and markets.

Contrast the western emphasis on democracy and free markets, with China’s statist “platform” approach to economic development.  China, over centuries of governing vast geography and population, evolved a centralized government and autocratic authority, while allowing individual provinces and entrepreneurs undefined or even loose – but quickly revocable – license.  As in centuries before, China has kept its domestic markets relatively isolated from the world. 

How has China tightened its grip on its buffer outpost HongKong with no concern for world reactions?

Confidence.  Consider how China now positions Shanghai (and likely, Hongkong) as financial exchange centers to challenge US and European centers.   Over the past years, the west powers have partnered – or at least, not challenged – the China Belt and Road program’s success.  Nor has its physical expropriation of the South China sea met more than token outcries.

Democratic nations are baffled by how the larger China population trust/comply submissively to the state.  At the core is an implicit contract: the individual exchanges individual freedom for the state ensuring basic and economic needs.  

So it was, that China could impose comprehensive lockdowns and restrictions; and also have, in its nationalized systems, a ready infrastructure for a coordinated national crisis response. 

Post Pax-Americana?  The US will have much fences to mend even among its historical allies. It certainly has pushed nations to think more regionally or individually. 

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